Congress Leaves for Recess Amid Shutdown, Shake-Ups, and Growing Uncertainty

As Congress heads into April recess, it leaves behind a remarkable degree of disorder. Between a government shutdown now stretching beyond 45 days, the ouster of two Trump Cabinet secretaries, an ongoing war in Iran, and a narrowing legislative window before August, lawmakers are leaving Washington with far more unresolved than addressed. Below is a breakdown of the latest stretch of congressional chaos and what to watch when members return.

Shutdown News

On Thursday, the Senate advanced a proposal to fund much of the Department of Homeland Security, including TSA, though the House declined to take up the measure later that morning. The legislation moved during a pro forma session, a brief meeting in which substantive legislative business typically does not occur, while lawmakers remain away on a two-week recess.

The House, which held its own pro forma session later Thursday, similarly chose not to act, making it likely that the partial government shutdown will extend through the weekend. The House is next scheduled to meet on April 6 in a pro forma session, and neither chamber is expected to return in full until the week of April 13.

The President also issued an Executive Order directing the Homeland Security Secretary and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to use funds with a “reasonable and logical nexus” to TSA operations to provide employees with compensation and benefits they would have received absent what the administration has labeled the “Democrat-led DHS shutdown.”

Presidential Budget Request

The long-awaited Trump 2.0 budget request has now been released, and it reflects a sweeping effort to reshape federal spending priorities. Most notably, it proposes a dramatic 40 percent increase in military spending amid the ongoing war, with the administration formally urging congressional Republicans to move roughly $350 billion in defense funding through the reconciliation process, sidestepping the Senate filibuster and minimizing the need for bipartisan negotiations. But more on a reconciliation 2.0 later. At the same time, the White House is seeking a 10 percent cut to nondefense spending, amounting to a proposed $73 billion reduction in federal programs outside the military.

Environmental programs are among the most prominent targets, including the elimination of $15 billion in grants for renewable energy technology and $4 billion in transportation funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure.The administration is also leaning heavily into fraud prevention. As senior officials continue to criticize fraud in tax incentives and federal safety-net programs such as Medicare, the President’s budget calls for the creation of a new National Fraud Division within the Justice Department to combat what the White House describes as a “rampant and pervasive problem.” 

Additional cuts include a proposed elimination of $1.6 billion in NOAA research programs, $45 million in savings from the Interior Department’s renewable energy portfolio, and another $642 million from what the administration characterizes as “woke and wasteful international financial institutions” within the Treasury Department budget.

House and Senate Shake-Up

With more than 50 members now expected to forgo reelection next year, the political math for Republican leadership has only become more difficult. That growing uncertainty has also laid bare the priorities Republicans view as too important to defer, even in a narrow and increasingly unpredictable majority.

Permitting Reform

Late last year, after the House passed the SPEED Act, attention quickly shifted to the Senate and the prospects for companion legislation. But momentum slowed considerably after the Trump administration paused federal leases on five wind farms off the Eastern Seaboard. In response, key Senate Democrats announced they would also halt negotiations on broader permitting reform.

For now, talks appear effectively frozen. Democrats may choose to wait out their minority status in hopes of negotiating from a stronger position later. At the same time, given how tense the talks have already become, it is far from clear they would face a more accommodating Republican minority in the future. With Senator or Chairman Jeff Merkley in the driver's seat, any chance at bipartisan reform would be slim to none. 

Reconciliation 2.0

In January, House conservatives unveiled their “Reconciliation 2.0 Framework to Make the American Dream Affordable Again,” centered on the rising costs of housing, energy, and health care. More recently, however, the focus has shifted toward whether reconciliation could also serve as a vehicle for addressing the $200 billion tied to the war in Iran, along with additional funding for immigration enforcement.There has also been discussion of whether permitting reform could be folded into the same package. However,  as more ornaments get added to the proverbial Christmas Tree it is unclear on what the path forward would be. 

Executive Branch UpheavalThe executive branch has hardly been any calmer. Following the announcement of Kristi Noem’s departure from DHS and Senator Markwayne Mullin’s smooth confirmation process, Oklahoma’s newest senator was installed.

 Alan Armstrong, who is closely aligned with President Trump on energy policy, has drawn particular attention. During his time leading Williams Companies, Armstrong played a major role in reviving the Northeast Supply Enhancement expansion of the Transco system and devoted substantial effort to reviving the Constitution Pipeline.Attorney General Pam Bondi was next. Reports indicated that she had been told “her time as AG was coming to a close” ahead of the President’s 20-minute address on Iran Wednesday evening. 

On Truth Social, the President nonetheless praised Bondi for doing a “tremendous job” overseeing a crackdown on crime and described her as both a “loyal friend” and a “patriot.”Bondi now enters history as having the shortest tenure of a Senate-confirmed attorney general since 1975, when Gerald Ford forced out Richard Nixon’s final appointee, Richard Saxbe. In a post on X, she stated that she would spend the next month transitioning the office to Todd Blanche before moving into a private-sector role, where she said she would continue supporting the President and his administration. Rumors surrounding her replacement have already turned to EPA Secretary Lee Zeldin.

Meanwhile, the war in Iran continues with little sign of easing political or economic anxieties at home. The President’s Wednesday night address did little to calm public concern or market unease. While he maintained that operations were proceeding successfully and suggested only a few more weeks would be necessary, he offered little detail on how the administration plans to address rising prices at the pump. Instead, he asked Americans for patience, comparing the current conflict’s projected duration to far longer military commitments such as Vietnam and Korea.

What to Watch

When Congress returns, the questions will be familiar but more urgent. Can leadership find a path out of the shutdown? Will reconciliation become a catch-all vehicle for defense, immigration, and perhaps even permitting reform? And how much more executive branch instability can the administration absorb before it begins to meaningfully affect the broader legislative agenda?

For now, Washington leaves town with no shortage of headline-grabbing developments and no clear sense that the turbulence will subside anytime soon.